Photo : REUTERS/Gleb Garanich
03 December 2021, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #63
IN FOCUS
By Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Ukraine: Emanating military confrontations and escalating tensions with Russia
Intensifying Ukraine-Russia tensions
On 26 November, President Joe Biden stated that he was concerned about a possible Pro-Russian coup plot in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that the coup plot was to take place in the first week of December, as per the reports he received from the Ukrainian Intelligence. His remarks came after receiving an audio recording of the coup that included voices of Russians. He alleged that the Ukrainian billionaire Rinat Akhmetov is funding the coup with Russian and Ukrainian accomplices. With these developments, Biden said he was “In all probability” open to speaking with Putin as he wanted to defuse the tensions in the region. Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary-General of NATO said that the “Military build-up was unprovoked and unexplained, which would lead to raised tensions and risks of miscalculation”.
On 30 November, a day after the Russians violated their ceasefire violations according to the Minsk agreements. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken at the NATO foreign ministers' summit in Latvia said that “any aggression in Ukraine would trigger serious consequences”. The statement came after there was an unusual increase of movements near Ukraine's eastern borders. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko came forward to say that Belarus would ask Russia to provide them with nuclear weapons if NATO supplied them to Poland. Britain's foreign secretary, moving on the tensions, called on the allies to rally together if Russia moves towards Ukraine.
NATO's warning of “Serious consequences”
On 1 December, NATO nations took note of the significant Russian build-up and increasing troops in and around Ukraine. They discussed and drew parallels between the current tensions and scenarios back in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea. Stoltenberg mentioned how Russia has been occupying parts of Ukraine and that if Russia does attack Ukraine again, “it would have to pay a high price with serious consequences”. These developments hinted at the fact that NATO would impose sanctions on Russia through the EU, the US, the UK, and Canada. On the next day of the meeting Eva-Maria Liimets, the minister of foreign affairs said that NATO was ready to welcome Ukraine and Georgia and that no other country in the region had any right to influence the decision. Ukraine was already a part of NATO’s Cooperative Cyber Defense Centre of Excellence and NATO and reiterated that they were open to Ukraine joining as a member.
Developments in the OSCE summit meeting
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met yesterday in the background of the OSCE summit. Blinken addressed the build-up of troops and military movements near Ukraine's borders and called out Russia to pull back forces and maintain a status quo. While Lavrov “stressed that Russia did not want any conflicts with NATO”. But, concerning Ukraine, Lavrov said “Russia maintains the right to choose ways to ensure its legitimate security interests” which furthers the speculations of Putin trying to grab a sizeable land in Ukraine to build a land bridge between Russia and Crimea. Putin mentioned that an immediate de-escalation of troops is not possible as he alleged that Ukraine had a troop build-up in the Donbas region. This escalation of tensions has brought the proposal of a new European security pact by Russia that would deter NATO from expanding further east.
References:
Alex Marquardt, Jennifer Hansler, Niamh Kennedy and Anna Chernova, “Blinken and Lavrov meet amid tensions over Russia's intentions in Ukraine,” CNN, 03 December 2021.
“Foreign minister reaffirms support for Ukraine and Georgia at NATO meeting,” ERR NEWS, 02 December 2021.
Humeyra Pamuk, Sabine Siebold, Robin Emmott, and Vladimir Soldatkin, “Putin hits back as NATO warns Moscow against attacking Ukraine,” Reuters, 01 December 2021.
Teri Schultz, “Russia has been warned: So will NATO defend Ukraine?,” Deutsche Welle, 01 December 2021.
“West uses migrants against Belarus in case of Russia-Ukraine conflict — Lukashenko,” TASS, 29 November 2021.
Steven Nelson, “Biden ‘concerned’ over alleged pro-Russia coup plot in Ukraine, likely to call Putin,” New York Post, 26 November 2021.
IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews, Ashwin Dhanabalan, and Padmashree Anandhan
AUSTRIA
Interior Minister Karl Nehammer set to become the new chancellor
On 03 December, Interior Minister Karl Nehammer was picked as the new head of the ruling People’s Party (ÖVP) following the resignation of former party head Sebastian Kurz. He is also set to be the next chancellor since Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg followed suit with Kurz and resigned as well. As a formality, Nehammer’s nomination needs to be accepted by the Austrian president. Nehammer had become the interior minister in 2020. Following the appointment, the former interior minister chose to reshuffle the Cabinet. In this move, Gernot Bluemel was replaced by Magnus Brunner to be the next finance minister. Schallenberg is expected to return to his previous post of being the foreign minister for the country. (“Austria: Karl Nehammer set to become new chancellor,” Deutsche Welle, 03 December 2021)
TURKEY
Turkey’s currency crash and Erdogan’s ignorance of the crisis.
On 03 December, Turkey’s national currency plummeted about 45 per cent to the dollar, and yet Erdogan has been pushing an economic model that would exacerbate the crisis. Erdogan sees inflation as "an evil that makes the rich richer and the poor poorer”. Erdogan did reduce Turkey’s interest rates, but only by 1 per cent from 16 per cent to 15 per cent. Turkey's economy is an import-dependent economy and with rising inflation, the prices of necessities such as food and textiles have increased tremendously. The Turkish youth are the worst affected by the rising unemployment and have been showing their discontentment on social media platforms. Turkey did well after the 2008 financial crisis and received foreign funds, but it used those funds to invest in the construction industry and hence is still dependent on imports for basic necessities. (Ozge Ozdemir, “Why Turkey's currency crash does not worry Erdogan.” BBC, 03 December 2021)
REGIONAL
The EU to reduce support funds for wine producers.
On 03 December, the EU unveiled plans to limit alcohol intake by introducing a report to fight against cancer. The report considers any alcohol consumption to be harmful and does not distinguish between high-alcohol beverages and wine. The European Parliament’s Special Committee on Beating Cancer has been scheduled to take a vote on 06 December, the vote would state that there is no safe limit of alcohol consumption to prevent cancer. This would discourage the Greek wine producers as the EU would likely reduce support funds for this sector, the report if voted on, will be approved by 2022. (Tania Georgiopoulou, “Wine producers fear loss of funding due to EU policy,” eKathimerini, 03 December 2021)
Ukraine reveals concerns over Russian military build-up
On 03 December, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov addressed the parliament and stated that Russia had amassed 94,000 troops along the border. Backed by intelligence reports, he said: “Our intelligence services analyze all scenarios, including the worst ones. It notes that a probability of a large-scale escalation on the part of Russia exists. The most probable time when (Russia) will be ready for the escalation is the end of January.” Although no provocation would arise from the Ukrainian end, they are prepared to respond to any Russian attack. In the meantime, Russia has denied the allegations raised against them. Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachev addressed the state television Russia-24, saying: “We don’t have any plans to attack Ukraine. We don’t have any heightened military activity near Ukraine’s borders. There is no preparation underway for an offensive.” (“Ukraine warns of possible Russian 'escalation' in January,” Deutsche Welle, 03 December 2021)
FRANCE
France signed a deal with the UAE to boost the defence industry
The French government has signed a purchase deal with the UAE of 80 Rafale military fighter aircraft worth EUR 16 billion. Additionally, another contract on the purchase of 12 Caracal helicopters was also signed. The deal comes as a result of the first-day visit of the French president in the Emirates which is said to continue to Qatar and Saudi Arabia. This contract is said to boost France's defence industry after the loss of the submarine contract with Australia. (“UAE signs contract with France for 80 Rafale warplanes as Macron visits Gulf,” Euronews, 03 December 2021)